CovidV1, an2020, Analysis, bibRecord, 000210

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.

Identifieur interne : 000210 ( an2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000209; suivant : 000211

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.

Auteurs : Sung-Mok Jung [Japon] ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov [Japon] ; Katsuma Hayashi [Japon] ; Natalie M. Linton [Japon] ; Yichi Yang [Japon] ; Baoyin Yuan [Japon] ; Tetsuro Kobayashi [Japon] ; Ryo Kinoshita [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]

Source :

Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32075152

Abstract

The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.

DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020523
PubMed: 32075152

Affiliations:

Japon

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:32075152

Le document en format XML

<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:32075152</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32075152</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020523</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000540</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000540</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000540</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000540</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000194</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000194</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000863</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000863</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000863</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">2077-0383:2020:Jung S:real:time:estimation</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000212</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000210</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000210</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/an2020/Extraction">000210</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title>
<idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December, 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/an2020/Analysis

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000210 | SxmlIndent | more

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000210 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Wicri/Sante
   |area=    CovidV1
   |flux=    an2020
   |étape=   Analysis
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     pubmed:32075152
   |texte=   Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.
}}

Pour générer des pages wiki

HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/RBID.i   -Sk "pubmed:32075152" \
       | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/an2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd   \
       | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33.
Data generation: Fri Mar 27 18:14:15 2020. Site generation: Sun Jan 31 15:15:08 2021

Serveur d'exploration Covid

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases.

Source :

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

	Serveur d'exploration Covid
	Attention, ce site est en cours de développement ! Attention, site généré par des moyens informatiques à partir de corpus bruts. Les informations ne sont donc pas validées.